How innocent?
They are confused because the wheeler-dealer journalists are not in the picture in the formation of government as we all have been witnessing in the past.
Can anyone forget Radia tape case?
Any how, the only advise I can give to people is watch the Maharashtra politics unfold and enjoy from far.
Let me begin with the latest update.
Many television journalists are explaining the developments from the political angle, but I will try to explain from the legal point of view.
Since I have also covered court proceedings, according to my understanding, the script writer of this political game is NCP's Sharad Pawar.
However, I do not claim I am not infallible. My understanding might go wrong. Let me be humble.
Why do I say the script writer is Sharad Pawar?
The veteran NCP leader has already buried Congress and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. This will be remembered for a very long time.
And, there will be tons of debates in the future claiming that Sharad Pawar was innocent because he was with Sena and Congress till the end.
Let me explain.
First let me tell you what happened in Supreme Court in last two days. It has reserved its verdict for tomorrow. It can only fix the date and timing of floor test in Maharashtra assembly.
One who are vouching for Karnataka type verdict, let me tell them that there is a very big difference between Karnataka and Maharashtra.
One should understand that, in Maharashtra, the government has already been formed after NCP submitted letter of support to BJP. Also, Devendra Fadnavis and NCP's Ajit Pawar have already assumed charges of Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister.
In Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa had approached Karnataka Governor to claim formation of government with BJP MLAs only, not with MLAs belonging to other parties.
Whereas in Maharashtra, both Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar submitted letters to the Governor. Hence, there is a big difference between the two states.
What the tripartite alliance petition says?
The petition challenges the decision of the Governor to invite BJP to form a "minority government" and asserts that they have the numbers to stake claim to form the government.
They also categorically assert that all the MLAs of Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress are completely and solidly with the alliance except for Ajit Pawar.
The petitioners also claimed that there is no material available to indicate that Fadnavis had letters of support from 144 MLAs as was claimed further pointing out that the majority mark stands at 145.
They also questioned the timing of administration of oath as early as in the morning and President's rule rescinded from Maharashtra in the wee hours.
The petitioners also alleged that the Governor had acted in a "partisan manner" and "made a mockery of the high office of the Governor".
In fact, the petitioners have further added that the actions of the Governor indicate that he has acted at the behest of a political party, in this case, the BJP.
Therefore, they prayed to the court to quash Governor's order of inviting Fadnavis to form the government as void and initio, illegal, and arbitrary.
They further sought for a direction to be passed by the Court for the Governor to invite the alliance, which has the support of more than 144 MLAs, to form the government.
The objections to the pleas
Firstly, the Supreme Court does not have powers to dismiss any state government. Even in Yeddyurappa case, the Supreme Court had given a ruling on the date and timing of the floor test in Karnataka assembly.
Secondly, the Supreme Court neither has any authority to direct the Governor to invite tripartite alliance to form the government.
Also, the Governor is immune from any court action.
Thirdly, based on the petitioners' plea, the Supreme Court, on November 24, had asked to place before it the letters submitted to Governor by Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar and said a floor test of Fadnavis government was the only issue before it.
Today, the letters were submitted to the Supreme Court, thereby the tripartite alliance plea to quash Fadnavis government is rendered null.
Moreover, Ajit Pawar, in his plea, today claimed that had he acted as the Leader of the NCP and there is nothing to the contrary to show that he was not the NCP leader on November 22.
In other words, Jayant Patil's appointment as NCP Leader after November 22 is unconstitutional. Interestingly, no parties have questioned the veracity of the letters, especially where Ajit Pawar mentions he is the Leader of NCP.
In contrast to BJP-NCP's letters submitted to the Governor, the counsel for NCP, Abhishek Manu Singhvi, withdrew the affidavit claiming that the tripartite alliance has the numbers to form the government.
This only means that the alliance did not have the numbers and hence to avoid contempt of court, Singhvi withdrew the affidavit.
Therefore, Ajit Pawar is NCP leader as per law and hence, he has the power to issue whip to his party legislators during the floor test.
Sharad Pawar's Game
Before the Modi-Shah-Pawar meeting, the NDA government had bestowed Padma Vibushan to the senior NCP leader and Amit Shah, just before the elections, expedited the ED probe against him in PMC bank case, so that the Maratha strongman's politics meanders around BJP.
In the backdrop of the trio's meeting, some questions arise. Why has Sharad Pawar not expelled Ajit Pawar for anti-party activities? In fact, he said he cannot do so because he alone cannot remove him.
Yet another question arises - Why did Ajit Pawar approach Governor to claim stake to form government the same night when he was made NCP Leader? Why not before that? Doesn't it looks like a ploy?
Did Sharad Pawar wait for giving a legal stamp to Ajit Pawar's letter before asking him to approach the Governor?
Has he also scripted a weak petition in Supreme Court?
Looks like, because he is known for scripting deceptive narrations to hurt rival parties all these years.
So, let me summarize the whole script of Sharad Pawar -
1) He made Ajit Pawar the NCP Leader
2) He handed over the letter of support to Ajit Pawar
3) He played the role of forming a rebel government
4) He filed a weak petition in the court
5) He appointed Jayant Patil as new NCP Leader thereafter which will not stand good legally
After doing all this, it is necessary for Sharad pawar to save his image in the public.
So what he does?
He sends messages through media that it was Ajit Pawar's personal decision to form rebel government and shows "solidarity" with Congress and Shiv Sena leaders by moving with them.
This is a classic case of eyewash politics.
Not only Sharad Pawar, Congress also has indulged in eyewash politics by approaching the Governor's office, in his absence today, to give the letter of forming tripartite alliance government.
If it had numbers, the alliance could have submitted the affidavit in the Supreme Court, but they didn't.
Now, what next?
Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will fix date and time of the floor test. After that, the whole process will begin. First the house will appoint a Protem Speaker. Second, all legislators will be made to take oath. Third, a Speaker will be elected. Fourth, the agenda will be taken up - either the floor test.
There could be an uproar in the assembly on the issue of who has the power to issue whip to NCP MLAs? In all certainty, the letter endorsed by Supreme Court claiming that Ajit Pawar is the party's legislature leader.
Ajit Pawar will then issue the whip asking all NCP MLAs to mandatorily vote for the government, if some violate, they will be disqualified.
Therefore, the chances of BJP and NCP forming a government is more likely.
Then what will Sharad Pawar do?
If 36 MLAs who were with him in the hotel votes for in Ajit Pawar's favour, then Sharad Pawar will talk about his helplessness to Congress and Shiv Sena by saying he tried everything politically, but failed constitutionally.
After a while, he could push for MP Supriya Sule, his daughter, into the central ministry as a reward for forming Maharashtra government.
Suppose, if 36 MLAs votes for Ajit Pawar and other MLAs stay with Sharad Pawar, then there will be two NCP parties lead by Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar.
If you look at it from any angle, Sharad Pawar will be as good as a father to Supriya Sule and as good as uncle to Ajit Pawar ... Period.
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